The publication of new data by the government shows that 3 people from The Meadows have died; their deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) between 1 March and 17 April 2020. 76 people for Nottingham in total.
“People living in more deprived areas have experienced COVID-19 mortality rates more than double those living in less deprived areas. General mortality rates are normally higher in more deprived areas, but so far COVID-19 appears to be taking them higher still.”
Nick Stripe, Head of Health Analysis, Office for National Statistics.
76 deaths of Nottingham city residents is slightly above the 71 that might be expected for share of population.
Whilst above the national trend, not as much as might be suggested given the deprivation in Nottingham.
The numbers of lab-confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Nottingham continues to be significantly below what might be suggested by share of population.
The reason for this is not known, but has been a trend for 3-4 weeks.
Assuming a UK population of 67.9 million, and a Nottingham population of 331 thousand, Nottingham’s share of 177 thousand cases nationally, by population would be 865, using figures published by PHE on 1st May.
If we round Nottingham’s figures down, assuming students are living away, the share would be 784 (within 300,000 people).
However, the number of cases are lower than these expectations – 518.
I have therefore asked whether Nottingham has been under-testing, and have been advised that Nottingham is not, despite an assertion from an acquaintance.
Assuming a Meadows population of 9 thousand, the share of cases might be 14, or 23, depending on sharing the Nottingham case figure or the national case figure.
PHE have published 27,510 deaths in which Covid-19 has been involved, a Nottingham share of which might be 80, or 134, and a Meadows share of which might be 2, or 3.
However, PHE have published datasets (showing deaths by Super Output Areas) running up until April 17th, at which time, the national death rate figure was 14,756.
This might suggest that the number of deaths in The Meadows might now stand at 5 or 6.
At such low numbers, such figures can only be treated as indicative.
But it does suggest that whilst The Meadows case rate is below national average, the death rate is above.
The main finding drawn from the SOA datasets that death rates are higher in the more deprived neighbourhoods (see quote).
Note, an FT journalist has published a much higher national number of deaths at 48,100 (30th April), suggesting a Nottingham figure of 234 and a Meadows figure of 6 (both by share of population).
The purpose of the additional calculations are to give a sense of local perspective, and to prompt questions of public health officers.e.g. are we testing enough in Nottingham? And how many of us have had the disease? Can you reasonably loosen the lockdown?
One scientist has published calculations of the fatality rate of .75% (+/- .26%).
Assuming 60,000 of those who have or have had the disease have died (increases on the FT journalist figure), this suggests only 12% of us (or perhaps 9%, or perhaps 18%) have or had have the disease, well below the often cited 60% required to stop the disease spreading without special measures.
But such figures are not being publicly rehearsed; so perhaps such a calculation is not legitimate, or it is still not known how to calculate such a figure.