Consequences for Nottingham of Brexit

At full council, I will be presenting a report which I have commissioned on Brexit and how it might affect Nottingham and the City Council.
A good deal of it is handed over to the negations on Brexit and how they are evolving.

In summary form, the issues are –

Nottingham has benefitted from alternative funding being directed to us as a. city in need, when the national gov’t has directed funds to better off places. We’ve drawn £190 million in 18 years.

European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF) money for this round of EU funding round (2014-2020) via Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire (D2N2)’s Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) for 2014-2020 is £214.3m.  It is unclear where other similar sources of funding will be available post-Brexit.

Our universities have been part of Europe’s drive on science which as taken it
to being bigger than the USA or China. Now the ability to draw on EU research grants – worth £20 million.

At risk – 45% of our exports go to the EU.

Business confidence, especially around decisions relating to inward investment, will likely be significantly weakened.

Nottingham is the 22nd (of 62 UK cities included) most impacted by a ‘hard’ Brexit at -2.4% GVA (-1.2% for soft) over ten years.  The model used underestimates the negative impact in industries where foreign investment is more important than trade barriers.

Here’s how the relevant section reads –
Nottingham has benefitted from significant European Funds in the past including funding for BioCity, Old Market Square, Nottingham Contemporary and the New Art Exchange.
The City has seen at least £190 million of EU funded projects since 2000 via the ERDF, ESF, Horizon 2020 and FP7 funding programmes.
Over recent years, around £20 million of our two leading Universities’ total annual income has been derived from research grants from EU sources.
The associated impacts on key areas of development like science, the environment and health, through the loss of the EU’s collective capacity for research and expertise, is likely to be significant for the UK without requisite agreements and clear working relationships. This implication could see Nottingham falling behind in sectors where we are currently strong.
From a local business perspective, 45% of our exports go to the EU and the relationship post-Brexit will have significant impact on the success of those businesses going forward. Similarly business confidence, especially around decisions relating to inward investment, will likely be significantly weakened.
The UK, with the creation of the single digital market, stood to be one of the countries that would have gained the most economically and this poses a missed opportunity, especially for Nottingham and the sectors we are looking to grow.
Nottingham City accesses European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF) money for this round of EU funding round (2014-2020) via Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire (D2N2)’s Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP).
D2N2’s ESIF allocation for 2014-2020 is £214.3m. This consists of both the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and European Social Fund (ESF).
It is unclear where other similar sources of funding will be available post-Brexit.
A Centre for Cities / LSE Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) report published in July 2017, looked to model the impact of both a ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ EU Exit on economic growth in individual Cities in the UK, over ten years, compared to what continuing membership would have delivered. Though heavily caveated, it suggested:
Nottingham is the 22nd (of 62 UK cities included) most impacted by a ‘hard’ Brexit at -2.4% GVA (-1.2% for soft) over ten years.
That the model used underestimates the negative impact in industries where foreign investment is more important than trade barriers.
The rise in the rate of inflation over the last year or so, often attributed to the fall in the value of the pound following the referendum result, now appears to be moving back. The CPI measure was 2.4% in September 2018, down from 2.7% in August.
It is important to note that whilst we have assessed the anticipated high level risk/impact of Brexit, we have not comprehensively reviewed the opportunities that remaining a member state would bring. The aforementioned creation of the single digital market, for example, highlights a clear missed opportunity that could have been of great benefit to Nottingham. Other similar opportunities have not comprehensively being scoped.

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