Assessing the challenges of Brexit to Nottingham


Nottingham City Council’s policy is that Britain should not leave the European Union, and I imagine that if asked to express its view again, 3 years on from passing a motion, our stance would remain the same.
Notably in that debate, the Conservatives refused to take part.
The council is likely to publish a revised assessment of the challenges posed at its 12th November full council meeting.

= Key Challenges =
The identifiable risks for Nottingham and the City Council, based largely on a report  from 2 years ago were –
Timing: there is uncertainty as to whether March 2019 will remain the leaving date, and as to the significance of some changes coming in 2020;
Uncertainty of final agreement content: there is still no clear model for what “Leave” will mean;
The Pound: what damage high variations in its value triggered by uncertainty and change do;
Inflation: expected to rise and has since;
Economy: the removal of 750 or so trading treaties, with significant delays to be expected in reaching new ones, will affect growth, the ability to export, the timeliness and posts of imports; the desirability of Nottingham for inward investment; growth is expected to fall;
European Structural Investment Funds: their loss will cut off useful alternative routes for external funding when national government has been less supportive;
Hate Crime: might it grow?
Skills: the impact on changes to the labour market to being able to fill posts;
Public spending: a smaller economy will lead to even lower public spending;

= City Economy = 
ESIF: was worth £214.3 million to Notts and Derbyshire for 2014 – 2020; the programme may have slipped; Nottingham had received at £190 million of such funding since 2000;
University Research: around £20 million of our universities’ annual income had come from EU sources;
Exports: around 45% of our exports goes to the EU;
Company ownership: out of 205 local companies that have group ownership overseas, 80 have parent companies in the EU;
Digital single market: the UK stood to be one of the countries that could have gained most from the introduction;

= City Council Treasury Management = 
Risks identified then need a re-statement since many of the issues concerned short term investments and then current events;

= Since 2016 =
Preparing Emergency plans to cover the period of withdrawal has become the main major concern.
In July, concerns mainly focussed on huge delays at ports in Kent.  Now planning is having to cover failures of supplies to reach factories and offices; and failures of supplies to shops, including food.

= More widely =
The status of the British-Irish border and potential threats to the Good Friday agreement is a very widely held public concern. .

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