Polls tell too wide-ranging a story

20170608 0200 ab0524h Gn poll of pollsSaw how opinion poll firms have underestimated Conservative leads over Labour in the run-up to the day.
Also seen stuff, which kinda evokes a football pundit’s psychology that somehow suggests optimism can cost you the result.
The main problems with this election’s polls is the range of findings, including the “final” polls.
-13, -12, -10, -8, -7, -7, -4, -1 and +1.
The Guardian/ICM shows a 12 point Conservative lead. Given the Conservatives won by 6.5 points last time, any seat that Labour won last time by 5.5 points is at a tipping point. Chances are 50-50 of a win or defeat.
After assessing national changes in political mood, you look for what else has changed since 2 years ago?
– the relative degree of local campaigning (including in recent local elections);
– the relative changes in the strengths of the candidates (incumbency tends to be a first time effect, although there are noticeable differences with some MPs; but also newness and mishaps;
– changes in smaller parties or independents, standing or not standing;:
– changes in big local issues (not so many around this time?);
– changes in demographics (registration, students, new estates etc.; and regional variations).
So, given a 12 point deficit, you can make a judgment about where the marginal seats really are with knowledge of the majority last time and local circumstances.
– a 3 point shift in the national lead of 3 points, and your initial chances of winning go from evens to 19 out of 20;
– another poll out reported a lead for the Conservatives of just 1 point; which completely throws any of the above careful calculations.
The marginal seats in the Nottingham / Derby area run from Nottingham South, to Gedling, to Derby North, to Erewash, Broxtowe, Sherwood and Amber Valley.
For what it’s worth, the Guardian/ICM poll has surprised me because it shows no movement when Theresa May has had a terrible week, all coming from decisions made some time previous.
And I am predicting Labour gains (as I did on 5th June.)

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